Читать книгу Gamechangers - Fisk Peter - Страница 13

The speed and impact of change is not only fast and relentless, but also exponential. It keeps multiplying. Familiar with the continual doubling of computing power, the never ending search for better and faster, and the ongoing obsolescence of devices, innovations keep building on each other, each growing exponentially, each magnifying the next.

Networks have the most exponential impact of all, proliferating ideas and capabilities, power and potential.

Whilst the future will be more volatile and uncertain it will also be more vibrant and unreal. The impact of change in a connected world is fast and far-reaching, as the advance of technology opens up new opportunities hard to imagine. Complexity is the norm as we learn to make sense of limitless information, discontinuities will be frequent, frictions will be displaced, and change will be exponential. Whilst ambiguity might seem disconcerting, paradox is the source of amazing possibility.

When astronauts return from space, they marvel at the new perspective they gain of our planet – how small it seems in the expanse of space, and how unique and fragile its life-enabling ecosystems really are. It can transform attitudes about what matters, how to solve problems, about the scale of our ambitions and potential impacts.

We need to learn to think bigger, to reframe our sightlines, to think in a connected way, to understand the cause and effects of systems.

Global GDP is estimated to grow from $62 trillion back in 2010 to over $90 trillion by 2020, according to the World Bank. The economies of China and India will triple in that period, with China replacing America as the world's largest economy. Looking further ahead, by 2050 the old G7 of advanced nations will be collectively half the value of the E7 nations (also including Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey).

As economic power shifts east, political influence and military capability will follow. As global citizenship mushrooms to 7.5 billion, it is the new lower- to middle-income consumers that will have most impact on markets. Accelerating demand for oil and gas, food and fresh water, metals and land, will create price volatility and political tensions. Peak oil in 2021, after which it is expected to dwindle in supply, will exasperate the problem, whilst carbon emissions and sea levels continue to rise.

Huge population shifts from countryside to cities, farms to factories, transform landscapes and demographics, putting enormous strain on infrastructure. Baby boomers live on, as the ageing populations of advanced nations need more healthcare, whilst youthful populations of growing economies will demand better education. They will also embrace technology faster, hungry for innovations and entrepreneurial wealth.

Of these forces, GRIN (genetic, robotic, intelligent and nano) technologies will be most disruptive. However, perhaps an even a bigger driver of markets and brands will be the dreams and expectations of consumers, alongside the imagination of the next generation entrepreneurs to fulfil them in novel and profitable ways.

Making sense of the future requires a leap of imagination. In the past we drew trend lines to understand smooth evolutions into the future. We cannot predict the future of smartphones as an incremental journey from today's models, as the devices jump to our wrists and clothing, to become embedded in our vision or minds. Nokia has learnt that a dominant market position can lead to irrelevance within five years.