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In this study, we used linear regression to predict the future trajectories of GHG emissions, as shown in Figure 1.3. Furthermore, the annual GHG emissions from 2000–2010 and 2010–2016 were extrapolated using linear regression in order to predict future trajectories for 2030 under two type of scenario: without REDD+ commitment (white circle) and with REDD+ commitment (black circle).

Figure 1.3 The trend lines of annual GHG emissions for predicting future trajectories.

Figure 1.4 The percentage of REDD+ progress in East Kalimantan for 2030. Source: Based on East Kalimantan (2013).

Figure 1.4 shows the future trajectories of GHG emissions in the study area. It states that under REDD+ commitment, the GHG emissions will be reduced by 13.41% in 2020. Furthermore, the GHG emission for 2030 (70.11 Mt CO₂) will be reduced by 18.89% from the historical baseline (86.44 Mt CO₂) if the province applied the REDD+ strategy consistently. These results projected that the REDD+ program implemented in East Kalimantan could reduce GHG emissions from historical baselines for 2020 and 2030.