Читать книгу Intermittent Demand Forecasting - John E. Boylan - Страница 17

Moving beyond the after‐sales industry, and the defence sector, we now examine the potential benefits that may result from intelligent intermittent demand forecasting for the wider economy. Purchased goods inventories and their management are significant concerns for firms wishing to remain competitive and survive in the marketplace. According to the 26th Annual State of Logistics report (CSCMP 2015, statistics referring to 2014), the United States alone has been sitting on approximately $2 trillion worth of goods held for sale. According to the same report, the inventory carrying costs (taxes, obsolescence, depreciation, and insurance) are estimated to be around $0.5 trillion (i.e. about 25% of the value of the goods). The total value of inventory was equivalent to approximately 14% of the US gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. Although similar statistics have not been given in subsequent publications, the 30th Annual State of Logistics Report (CSCMP 2019) revealed that inventory carrying costs in the United States increased by 14.8% between 2014 and 2018.

These figures show that a huge amount of capital is tied up in warehouses. They also indicate that small improvements in managing inventories may be translated into considerable cost benefits. We should, therefore, not be surprised to learn that firms, from manufacturing to wholesale to retail, are currently intensifying their search for more efficient and effective inventory management approaches. Their aim is to minimise not only their direct investments in purchased goods inventory but also the indirect cost incurred in managing this inventory. In a make to stock (MTS) environment (discussed in Section 1.4.2), if there is no decoupling in terms of the ownership and location of the inventories, then these indirect costs become more significant the longer the stock remains unsold. The high volumes of stocks of intermittent demand items, and their high risk of obsolescence, should put them very high up the list of priorities for modern businesses.