Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 51
Upward Moves
ОглавлениеBull Market | Bear Market | |
Performance rank | 4 out of 5 | 3 out of 5 |
Breakeven failure rate | 11.6% | 3.7% |
Average rise | 38.4% | 30.5% |
Volume trend | Upward | Upward |
Point D reversal rate | 38% | 33% |
How many reach point D? | 100% | 99% |
See also | Bullish bat, bullish butterfly, bullish crab, bullish Gartley, measured move down |
The bullish AB=CD pattern is a type of measured move down except that the pattern's turns are determined by Fibonacci ratios. I measured performance of Fibonacci‐based patterns differently than I do other chart pattern types. That's because we're looking for a reversal at the end of the pattern and not an up or down breakout. Therefore, the layout of this chapter is different from most other chapters in this book.
The theory behind this pattern is that if you know the first three turns (ABC), you can calculate the fourth turn (D). The method works nearly all of the time, meaning price does fall to the calculated point D. However, when price reaches D, it fails to reverse there. Only about a third (33% in bear markets and 38% in bull markets) will see price turn upward when it's supposed to.
Of course, your software for identifying the bullish AB=CD may be different than the model I built, so your performance may vary. Add trading rules to improve performance and you may find this pattern a useful tool. Let's see what this pattern looks like.