Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 60

	Bull Market	Bear Market
Performance rank	1 (best) out of 5	4 out of 5
Breakeven failure rate	17.7%	4.5%
Average drop	–14.3%	–20.2%
Volume trend	Downward	Downward
Point D reversal rate	86%	86%
See also	Big W, bearish crab, bearish butterfly, double bottoms (all types), and bearish Gartley

Every time I see a bearish bat pattern, my first thought is it's a Big W chart pattern. It's as if the Big W was computerized and the developer used Fibonacci ratios to determine the turning points. The bat pattern joins other Fibonacci‐based patterns: AB=CD, butterfly, crab, and Gartley.

I measured performance of Fibonacci‐based patterns differently than I do other chart pattern types. That's because we're looking for a reversal at the end of the pattern and not an upward or downward breakout. Therefore, the layout of this chapter is different from most other chapters in this book.

The above Results Snapshot gauges the downward move after the pattern ends. The stocks I looked at saw price turn lower 86% of the time after reaching point D. That percentage is not good but great!

The average decline in bull markets is a hair over 14%. The breakeven failure rate isn't too bad, at 17.7%. That means an average of almost 18% of the bearish bats will fail to see price drop more than 5% below the high at D (end of the pattern).

All of this may be confusing unless you can see what a typical bat pattern looks like. So let's take a quick tour.