Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 52

Figure 3.1 shows an example of a bullish AB=CD. Price begins the pattern at peak A after an exhaustion gap warns of the coming retrace. The pattern completes at valley D, with turn BC nestled comfortably between those two points. Notice that price turned at D and climbed from there (at least for a time). Price reversing at D and climbing is how the pattern is supposed to work.

In this example, price broke out of the pattern upward at F when it closed above the top of the pattern. Not shown, but the stock continued higher to rise 119% above the low at D. If only all chart patterns worked like that!

This chart is also a good example of the CD leg meeting the projection of AB. In other words, the height of AB subtracted from C gives turn D. Thus, if you know turns ABC, you can estimate where D will appear. However, you can also use that price information to predict where D will be using Fibonacci numbers (because turn D can be far away from the ABC turns). I'll discuss that in the next section.

Notice volume (E) trends downward in this example. A downward volume trend happens 47% of the time in a bull market (meaning an upward trend is slightly more likely). An upward volume trend helps boost performance, and we'll see how much in the Statistics section.

Figure 3.1 This chart shows how a bullish AB=CD pattern sees price turn at D.