Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 53

Table 3.1 shows the identification guidelines, and Figure 3.2 shows an example of a bullish AB=CD pattern.

Appearance. Bullish AB=CD patterns are a member of what I call Fibonacci patterns whose turns are set by Fibonacci ratios. I don't suggest you try finding this pattern manually. Rather, use pattern recognition software that can hunt down these patterns like a cat hunts mice. I found so many in my quest to count them that I ran out of fingers and toes and had to limit the number a stock could report.

Table 3.1 Identification Guidelines

Characteristic	Discussion
Appearance	A zigzag pattern that has four turns, two of which are governed by Fibonacci ratios.
CB/AB retrace	The retrace should be one of the Fibonacci numbers: .382, .5, .618, .707, .786, or .886.
CD/CB extension	The extension should be one of the Fibonacci numbers: 1.13, 1.27, 1.41, 1.618, 2, 2.24, 2.618, or 3.14.
Hills and valleys	From A to B, there should be no peak higher than A and no valley lower than B. From B to C, there should be no peak higher than C and no valley lower than B. From C to D, there should be no valley lower than D and no peak higher than C.
Volume	The volume trend provides a slight performance improvement depending on the bull or bear market condition. See Table 3.2.
Duration	Limited to 6 months, but that's an arbitrary value.

Figure 3.2 Another example of a bullish AB=CD pattern with an upward breakout (when price closes above the top of the pattern).

CB/AB retrace. The BC retrace of AB should be one of the Fibonacci numbers listed in Table 3.1. Let's use the pattern shown in Figure 3.2 as an example of how this works (rather, how I wrote my software to find these patterns).

The high price at A is 228.89, the low at B is 213.12, and the high at C is 225.45. The CB/AB ratio is (225.45 – 213.12)/(228.89 – 213.12) or .782, which is darn close to the .786 number in the table. It qualifies as a proper turn. My software looks for a number within a window .5% of the target numbers listed in the table.

Once you know the ABC turn, you can determine what D should be priced at. In this example D = C – (A – B) or 209.68, which is close to the actual low at D of 209.62.

CD/CB extension. Point D can also be found by the formula C – (C – B)/(Fibonacci number) or 225.45 – (225.45 – 213.12)/.786 in this example. The result is 209.76.

Hills and valleys. The table explains the requirements of peaks and valleys between the various points in the pattern.

Volume. Volume trends upward from points A to D most often, but the trend is almost random.

Duration. I limited patterns to 6 months duration or less. This is an arbitrary limit.