Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 54

Figure 3.3 shows one example of how this pattern fails. The four points in the pattern are labeled as ABCD, and they comprise the bullish AB=CD pattern. Volume slopes upward in this example, shown by the diagonal line at E.

Figure 3.3 This bullish AB=CD has price falling through the predicted turning at D.

Point D is where the stock is supposed to bottom and turn upward, but it doesn't. It's obvious that the height of CF is much taller than AB, but the height can vary depending on the Fibonacci numbers used in construction of the pattern. The turn at D should be at 40.05, and yet the stock continues lower.

This type of failure happens often, 62% of the time in bull markets and 67% of the time in bear markets. Let me also say that this high failure rate may be due to the model I used. Your software may find patterns that perform better than the ones I found.

Another way the pattern fails is if the stock doesn't make it down to D. It turns before the predicted target, leaving you waiting to buy the stock with a fist full of money. Fortunately, this type of failure is exceedingly rare.

Finally, the pattern can also fail if it does make it down to D and it does turn at D, but the rise isn't high enough to make money. These types of failures are what I call 5% failures and describe them in Table 3.2 as the breakeven failure rate. Let's check the statistics to see what we can learn about this pattern.