Читать книгу Demographic Dynamics and Development - Yves Charbit - Страница 22

To explain the decline in mortality in Europe since the end of the 18th century, Abdel Omran (1971) proposed the theory of epidemiological transition, or the passage from an old mortality regime (the “age of pestilence and famine”), through a transition period of a “decline in pandemics”, to finally reach the last age of “degenerative” and “societal” diseases (Omran 1998). Then appeared the more general concept of “health transition” (Meslé and Vallin 2002). During this period, medical advances for reducing infectious and cardiovascular diseases were accompanied by the development of food, agriculture and education, as well as an improvement in the living standards, the establishment of a sanitation infrastructure (drinking water, sewers) and the development of health systems. But, within these dimensions, inequalities have widened, because the entire population does not have equal access to them (Meslé et al. 2011, p. 484).

In Europe, the delays in the age for marriage¹⁰ accompanied the secular decline in fertility, in the absence of effective contraception methods for couples. In 1840, Festy made a distinction between countries with late marriages, over the age of 27 – Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden), Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland – and countries with early marriages, under the age of 26 – Finland, Great Britain, Germany, Austria, Southern Europe (Spain, Italy and Portugal) and North America (Festy 1979, p. 28). He showed the complex relationship between late marriage, low fertility, breastfeeding habits and differences in fecundity between the rich and the poor in 1870 (Festy 1979, p. 42). In addition, “intermediate fertility variables”, which are biological, social and economic as well as cultural, work together in the reduction of fertility (Davis and Blake 1956). Bongaarts calculated that they could be reduced to four determining variables, which alone explain the majority of changes in fertility: the age of the first union, the duration of breastfeeding, the use of contraception methods and abortion (Bongaarts 1978). In Asian and Latin American countries, modern contraception and abortion have played a predominant role in birth limitation, because “the contraceptive revolution” reached all the regions in the world (Leridon and Toulemon 2002). In Africa, the duration of prolonged breastfeeding has a reducing effect on the number of children per couple (Tabutin and Schoumaker 2004).

Coale grouped the main macrosocial causes that explain fertility changes in the RWA model (Coale 1973):

– a first factor is the reasoned choice to give birth to a child. The advantages and disadvantages of an additional birth should be accepted by couples. This factor is called readiness (R). It determines the beginning of controlled fertility, in particular due to economic reasons;

– a second factor is the perception that low fertility is socially and economically beneficial for mothers and fathers. This factor is called willingness (W). It points to the social legitimacy of fertility control within families and a normative/cultural change in values;

– the third factor is the availability of birth control methods and their effective use. This factor is called ability (A). It depends on the diffusion of contraception methods, birth control infrastructure, and health and sanitation policies.

According to Coale, the main factors for the fertility transition to come about must simultaneously be economic, cultural and institutional. The three RWA preconditions act mutually, and if only one is lacking, the decline in fertility will not take place (Coale 1973; Lesthaeghe and Vanderhoeft 2001). As not all individuals change their behavior at the same time, and only pioneer groups adopt them, the diffusion toward the rest of the population is conveyed by means of “social interactions” (Bongaarts and Cotts Watkins 1996). But it can be slowed down or accelerated depending on the cultural, religious and linguistic standards of each region¹¹. Bourgeois-Pichat (1976) stressed the importance of group effects: “Of course, the couple decides, but they do so according to the social criteria and cultural heritage which, although quickly driven out, paradoxically maintain their rights” (p. 1077).

To explain contemporary demographic transitions, Coale’s (1973) diffusion model has been enriched by many authors. McNicoll (1980) analyzed the consequences of political and institutional factors in the behavior of families. Becker (1991) explained the limitation of births within couples due to microeconomic factors. Caldwell (1982) highlighted the role of intergenerational wealth flows: these are transferred from children to parents in high-fertility contexts and their direction changes, from parents to children, when the costs in children’s education and health increase, leading to fertility control. From a psychosocial perspective, Fawcett (1983) proposed to take into account the perceptions of the value of children. Simons (1982) was interested in the impact of religious practice on reproductive behavior.

Another theoretical proposition is that of the second demographic transition, which refers to the diversification of family configurations in post-modern societies, marked by the increase in cohabitation outside marriage, the increase in divorces and new cohabitations after union breakdowns, the delay in age for having the first child, the increase in births outside marriage and childless couples. These changes in nuptiality and fertility are probably derived from the primacy of individual choices, more equitable gender relations, greater autonomy for women, macrostructural factors, microeconomic calculations and new cultural models and values, which are expressed individually and collectively (Lesthaeghe 2010). While these movements may have taken place in some European countries, they have not yet spread to all other parts of the world, where family and gender systems are extremely resistant to change.