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After 1965, fertility was quickly transformed in Latin America and the Caribbean. We can identify four fertility transition models, as follows:

– An early transition that occurred, since 1900, in Argentina and Uruguay, with a total fertility rate in 1960–1965 of 3.1 and 2.9 children per woman, respectively (United Nations 2019a, Fert/4). These countries had a particular history: strong immigration of European origin, fast urbanization and good living conditions since the end of the 19th century. Immigrants from Italy, Spain and Eastern Europe arrived as carriers of the family standards from their home countries, where the fertility transition had already started. Fertility decreased throughout the 20th century, and did so until 2015–2020, slowly but steadily, then accelerated at the end of this period (Figure 1.2).

– A transition that started around 1965 in Cuba²⁰ (4.7 children per woman in 1960–1965) and in Chile (4.6 children per woman in 1960–1965) (United Nations 2019a, Fert/4). High education and urbanization made it possible to reduce fertility, reaching 1.9 and 2.6 children per woman in 1980–1985, with a drop of 60% and 40%, respectively. In the second period (1980–2015), the decline continued in these two countries, but at a slower pace (Figure 1.2).

– An accelerated transition that occurred between 1965 and 2015 in Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Panama, Dominican Republic and Venezuela. In this group of countries, fertility in 1960–1965 oscillated between 6 and 7.4 children per woman, then between 3.5 and 5 children per woman in 1980–1985, and finally, in 2015–2020, between 1.7 and 2.5 children per woman. In Colombia and Costa Rica, the reduction in the total fertility rate was 46% between 1960 and 1985, and greater than 30% in Brazil, Mexico, Panama and Venezuela (United Nations 2019a, Fert/4).

– A late and extremely rapid transition that occurred in Bolivia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay. These countries maintained a high fertility level in 1980–1985, with values between five and six children per woman. The decline in fertility after this date reached a reduction equal to or greater than 50%, and fertility in 2015–2020 oscillated between 2.5 and 3 children per woman (United Nations 2019a, Fert/4).

Figure 1.2. Total fertility rate in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): 1960–1965, 1980–1985, 2015–2020

(source: United Nations 2019a, Fert/4; LAC group and selected countries). For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/charbit/demographic.zip

Consequently, fertility converged in the region after 1965. All countries, regardless of their reproductive history, showed fertility levels between 1.6 and 3 children per woman in 2015–2020, whereas the starting levels in 1960–1965 ranged from 2.9 in Uruguay to 7.4 children per woman in the Dominican Republic. This transformation of Latin America’s fertility rate can be explained by the contraceptive revolution that occurred between 1965 and 1990, and by Malthusian poverty.

In 2019, contraceptive prevalence in Latin America and the Caribbean rose to 58% of women aged between 15 and 49 years using contraception methods. Female sterilization predominated, with 16% users for the whole region, 30% in the Dominican Republic and more than 20% in El Salvador, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico. The pill follows with 15% for the Latin American average, but 30% in Brazil. Sterilization is the first female method in Cuba (25% of users), and 24% of Cubans use the IUD, in a country where many legal abortions occur²¹ (United Nations 2019b).

The diffusion of modern contraception methods explained the decrease in fertility in Latin America after 1965, as family planning programs were established in the majority of countries, making it possible to meet the demand for birth control on the part of educated, economically active women living in large cities, with high standards of living (Cosio Zavala 1992). The use of modern contraception methods spread rapidly in these well-situated social categories, which followed the path of the societies that started the modern contraceptive revolution (Leridon and Toulemon 2002).

However, for disadvantaged social categories, a different fertility transition model took place, in the form of a late and rapid decrease. Until 1985, the poorest and least educated populations maintained high fertility, between five and six children per woman, as in Bolivia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay (United Nations 2019a, Fert/4). Then, their fertility dropped extremely quickly. Malthusian poverty came about when disadvantaged families had to limit their births in order to be able to survive given that modern contraception methods were widely available to them:

Far from conveying a harmonious social development, this stresses the bankruptcy of the economic model, the deterioration of the living standards and the effects of the crisis which dramatically hit the most disadvantaged social strata, while an abundant parallel offer of family planning services were developing. (Cosio Zavala 1998, p. 67)

In Table 1.4, we present a summary of the Latin American transitions in mortality and fertility, in 2015–2020, resulting in 10 differentiated groups depending on the different combinations.

Table 1.4. Latin American and Caribbean countries according to mortality and fertility transitions (2015–2020)

(source: United Nations 2019a; Tables Mort/7-1 and Fert/4)22

Mortality transitions	Fertility transitions
Highly advanced TFR < 2.0	Advanced TFR = 2.0	Major 2.4 ≥ TFR > 2.1	Moderate TFR = 2.5	In progress TFR > 2.5
Advanced Eo≥ 78 years	Chile 80/1.7 Costa Rica 80/1.8 Cuba 79/1.6	Uruguay 78/2.0		Panama 78/2.5
Average 78 years <E0 ≥ 75 years	Brazil 76/1.7 Colombia 77/1.8		Argentina 76/2.3 Ecuador 77/2.4 Mexico 75/2.1 Peru 76/2.3	Honduras 75/2.5
In progress 72 years ≥ Eo ≤ 74 years			Dominican Republic 74/2.4 El Salvador 73/2.1 Nicaragua 74/2.4 Venezuela 72/2.3	Paraguay 74/2.5	Guatemala 74/2.9
Starting Eo < 72 years					Bolivia 71/2.8 Haiti 64/3.0