Читать книгу Demographic Dynamics and Development - Yves Charbit - Страница 21

The demographic transition started in the mid-18th century in Europe, prompting two centuries of extraordinary progress reducing the mortality rate, because of the control of epidemics and famine. In France, between 1780 and 1840, life expectancy rose from under 30 to over 40 years of age, and from 1880 to 1940, from 43 to almost 60 years. Infant mortality also fell sharply. Advances in mortality did not take place in all European countries at the same time, or at the same pace. They were interrupted by wars (War of 1870, First World War) and the flu of 1918. Medical discoveries, in particular those of Pasteur on the microbial origin of infectious diseases, health progress and a rise in the standard of living, significantly contributed to reducing epidemics and food shortage (Vallin 2003, pp. 9–14). In addition, the increase in life expectancy continued to soar, reaching over 80 years between 2015–2020 (in Australia, Canada, South Korea, Europe, Japan, Singapore, etc.). In 2019, at a global level, life expectancy for both sexes was 72.3 years: in developed countries, it was 79.2 years, and 72 years in developing countries (United Nations 2019a, Table A.28).

After 1870, the decline in fertility in Europe started later than that of mortality, falling from almost five children to around two or three children per woman on the eve of the Second World War. Only France started limiting births in the mid-18th century, more than a century before other European countries (Festy 1979). The gap between the dates of the beginning of the decline in mortality and that in fertility was responsible for a strong population growth. Thus, the population of England and Wales increased from 6.5 million in 1750 to 42 million in the early 1940s (Vallin 2003, p. 27).

In the mid-20th century, the demographic transition spread to Asia and Latin America, with mortality declining after 1950, followed by fertility circa 1970 (Chesnais 1986a). The decrease in mortality was further accelerated by the effectiveness of health policies resulting from previous experiences in developed countries (Omran 1971). For four decades, between 1940 and 1990, the birth rate greatly exceeded the crude death rate, leading to strong population growth, higher than 2% per year. This figure had never been reached in Europe or in Japan (Chesnais 2002, p. 458). Finally, during the second half of the 20th century, the decline in fertility became widespread. Contrary to what happened in Europe, “the explosion of the Third World” (Vallin 2003, p. 60) resulted in the implementation of birth control policies, thus rapidly reducing fertility. As Vallin wrote, “there are few cases when one can say that the introduction of a birth control program is the main factor underlying a desired reduction in fertility” (Vallin 2011, p. 344). But he rightly emphasized that access is made easier, for couples and for women who wish to limit their births, when such programs exist (Vallin 2011, p. 344).