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The observation of contemporary demographic evolution raises questions about the universal validity of the three paradigms by Chesnais to explain the demographic transition: first, on the likelihood of the stabilization hypothesis when the transition is complete; then, on the reproductive transition in two phases (limitation of marriages, limitation of births); finally, on the influence of entry into modern economic growth (Chesnais 1986a, p. 1061).

The first question concerning the transition’s completion is based on the observation of recent upward and downward oscillations in contemporary low fertility. In 1979, Bourgeois-Pichat asked: “Is the current decline in fertility in Europe part of the demographic transition model?” To this question, he gave the following answer:

What we are currently observing seems to indicate that this last phase is not characterized by constant fertility, but rather by a succession of waves produced by modifications in family structures, which themselves result from variations in fertility. (Bourgeois-Pichat 1979, pp. 293–294)

Vallin also stressed that “the evolutions observed in the most advanced countries are moving further and further away from the model of demographic transition, and, while convergence is still possible, it is unlikely that it will lead to stabilization” (Vallin 2003, p. 75). Moreover, Myrskylä et al. (2009) have shown that the relationship between fertility in the most developed countries and the high level in the Human Development Index (HDI)¹² has become positive, which explains the recovery in fertility levels in countries having reached the higher level of development.

The second question concerns the paradigm of the two-phase reproduction transition module (limitation of marriages, and consequent limitation of births), which is not always confirmed. For example, in Mexico, nuptiality is still early: in the 30 generations between 1951 and 1980, the median age for the first union¹³ of Mexican women was stable at age 21, despite a significant increase in their education. This did not prevent fertility from decreasing rapidly, and other factors explain this, such as the diffusion of modern contraception methods, including female sterilization (Zavala and Paéz 2016). A comparison between Algeria and Mexico showed that the reduction in fertility was similar between 1970 and 2005: decreasing from 7 to 2.4 children per woman. However, the average age for the first union evolved differently throughout the period: while it remained roughly stable in Mexico (from 21 to 23 years old), it sharply increased in Algeria (from 18 to 30 years old) (Cosio Zavala 2012).

Finally, the other paradigm that does not hold true everywhere is that of economic growth to explain changes in fertility. As a matter of fact, in developing countries, there are two fertility transition models: the first model is that of the urban and educated population, which controls their births, following an improvement in their standard of living. The second model, Malthusian poverty, has its origin in weak economic growth and poor living conditions. This has been the case in Mexico for three decades, in a situation of interminable economic crisis, where families limit the number of children because they lack the means to raise them (Cosio Zavala 1996). These two fertility transition models are also present in sub-Saharan Africa: in Kenya and Côte d’Ivoire (Vimard and Fassassi 2001), Benin (Capo-Chichi 1999), Nigeria (Caldwell et al. 1992) and in a number of countries in the region (Lesthaeghe and Jolly 1995). Therefore, the postulate of a negative relationship between fertility levels and economic growth does not apply to developing countries or to highly developed populations, as mentioned above (Myrskylä et al. 2009). It is, therefore, not a global relationship, neither in all places nor at all times, capable of explaining the generalization of the demographic transition worldwide.

In the next section, we will analyze the demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean in order to illustrate the diversity and particularity of developments. Having begun around 1900 in the south of the subcontinent, it has barely started in some countries today. The temporal and spatial disparities are very important, depending on social, economic and cultural contexts.