Читать книгу Demographic Dynamics and Development - Yves Charbit - Страница 20

According to the United Nations Population Division, the world population is expected to continue to grow for several decades (United Nations 2019a)⁴. The population might increase from 7.7 billion inhabitants in 2019 to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100 (medium-variant projection). Between 2019 and 2050, projections predict a near doubling of the population in Africa, whereas the European population might decrease during this period (Table 1.1). Leridon confirms the likelihood of the population exceeding 9 billion by 2050, “unless one considers catastrophes of unprecedented magnitude at a global scale” (Leridon 2020)⁵.

On the basis of the theory of demographic transition, the perspectives of the United Nations foresee a reduction and a convergence in mortality and fertility levels⁶: by 2060, fertility might reach 1.75 children per woman in developed countries and 2.15 children per woman in developing countries (United Nations 2019a, Fert/4). Table 1.2 shows the populations of different regions in the world, between 2019 and 2100, classified into six groups, according to the stages of their demographic transitions. We consider the demographic transition to be complete when life expectancy is over 70 years old (average for both sexes) and when fertility is equal to or lower than 2.1 children per woman.

Table 1.1. Estimates and projections of the population of the world’s geographic regions in 2019, 2050 and 2100 (thousands of inhabitants)

(source: Population Prospects 2019; United Nations 2019a)

Region	Population
2019	2051	2100
Africa	1,308,064	2,489,275	4,280,127
Asia	4,601,371	5 290,263	4,719,907
Europe	747,183	710,486	629,563
North America	366,601	425,200	490,889
Latin America and the Caribbean	648,121	762,432	679,993
Oceania	42,128	57,376	74,916
Total	7 713,468	9,735,034	10,875,394

The composition of the six demographic transition groups is as follows:

– For 2019, group 1 brought together the countries of Europe, North America and Oceania (1.1 billion inhabitants), which completed their demographic transition before 1970. In 2019, they represented 14% of the world population. The European population is expected to decline (with the exception of Northern Europe) and that of North America and Oceania is expected to increase. This first group could reach a total of 1.2 billion inhabitants by 2100, with low growth between 2019 and 2100, around 10% (according to estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a).

– Group 2 brings together countries whose demographic transition was completed at the end of 20th century. Japan joined this group in 1970, the Republic of Korea in 1985, China in 1990 and the Democratic Republic of Korea in 1995. These East Asian countries had nearly 1.7 billion inhabitants in 2019 (21% of world population). By adding all the countries whose fertility is lower than or equal to 2.1 children per woman – such as Chile, Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay, many small island countries, a large part of the Middle East’s countries, Bangladesh, Iran and Sri Lanka – there are a total of 2.4 billion inhabitants (31% of the world population). However, this population should decrease to approximately 2 billion inhabitants by 2100 (18% of the world population). The population of East Asia, including China, might start to decline in 2050, reaching 1.2 billion people in 2100, half a billion less than in 2019 (according to estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a).

– Group 3 includes countries that will have completed their fertility transition by 2030. During the second half of the 20th century, they experienced a sharp decline in mortality, a rapid reduction in fertility as well as exceptional population growth. In 2019, these countries narrowly exceeded those of the second group, with 2.5 billion inhabitants (33% of the world population). These are large countries in Southern Asia (India) and countries in Southeast Asia (except Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines). The majority of Latin American and Caribbean countries are in group 3 (except Bolivia, Guatemala, Haiti, Panama and Paraguay). In Africa, this group brings together a few North African countries (Libya and Tunisia) as well as small island countries (Mauritius, Reunion and Cape Verde). By 2100, this set of populations will have grown to 2.1 billion, a fifth instead of a third of the world population (according to estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a).

– For group 4, the fertility transition will be completed in around 2050. These are Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines in Asia; Algeria and Morocco in North Africa; some Latin American countries (Bolivia, Guatemala, Haiti, Panama and Paraguay) and some sub-Saharan African countries (Botswana, small island countries and South Africa). Group 4 had around 550 million inhabitants in 2019 (7% of the world population), and will count 860 million by 2100, 8% of the world population (according to estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a).

– Group 5 consists of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Nigeria, Chad, Togo and Senegal), which will be close to completing their fertility transition by 2100 (between 2.1 and 2.3 children per woman). In 2019, this group brought together approximately 557 million inhabitants (7% of the world population). By the end of the projections, its population will have multiplied more than three times (nearly 1.7 billion inhabitants in 2100), that is to say, 15% of the world population (according to estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a).

– Finally, group 6 includes countries where fertility will be higher than 2.4 children per woman by 2100. There are not many countries in this group, but its population growth will be extremely high. This group includes Angola, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Mauritania, Niger, Somalia, Tanzania and Zambia. It includes 187 million inhabitants in 2019 (2.4% of the world population), and will count 931 million by 2100, that is to say, 8.6% of the world population (according to estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a).

In summary, in a few decades, based on past and current demographic trends, global demographic change has been radical and a complete geopolitical redistribution is underway, according to the United Nations’ medium-variant (United Nations 2019a).

Table 1.2. Groups of countries per demographic transition and population in 2019, 2030 and 2100 (in billions of inhabitants)

(source: World Population Prospects 2019 (estimates and medium-variant); United Nations 2019a)

	Complete demographic transition by 2019	Complete demographic transition by 2030	Complete demographic transition between 2030 and 2100
Group 1	1.1 billion Europe, North America, Oceania		1.2 billion
Group 2	2.4 billion Japan, China, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Western Asia, Bangladesh, Iran, Sri Lanka		2 billion
Group 3	2.5 billion	India, Southeast Asia7, Latin America8, Libya, Tunisia, Mauritius, Réunion Island, Cape Verde	2.1 billion
Group 4	0.550 billion		0.860 billion Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Algeria, Morocco, Bolivia, Guatemala, Haiti, Panama, Paraguay, Botswana, South Africa
Group 5	0.557 billion		1.7 billion Sub-Saharan Africa9
Group 6	0.187 billion		0.931 billion

Note: The definition of a complete demographic transition considers a life expectancy of over 70 years and a total fertility lower than 2.1 children per woman. We only counted the most populated countries in 2019.

If we add to the main countries that completed their demographic transition in 2019 (groups 1 and 2), those of the third group (ending in 2030), this set comprises 78% of 2019’s world population (6.1 billion). But this will significantly decrease: by 2100, it will bring together 5.3 billion inhabitants, or 48% of the world population (estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a). Indeed, the countries which are currently completing their demographic transition will experience a modest population growth, with an older age structure.

However, the population of the main countries where the demographic transition is still “awaiting completion” (groups 4, 5 and 6), which reached 1.3 billion and 16% of the world’s population in 2019, will rise to 3.5 billion inhabitants by 2100 and its proportion will double (32%). Its population growth will be high due to the gap between the decline in mortality and the decline in birth rates, and a young age structure.