Читать книгу A Time Traveller's Guide to Our Next Ten Years - Frans Cronje - Страница 13

The sixth step then is to identify a number of major trends that will play a key role in determining the future direction of the country or system in question. Peter Schwartz, who succeeded Pierre Wack at Shell, and other scenario planners describe these as ‘key driving forces’. These trends are so powerful that, depending on how they play out, they have the capacity to change the future of any given system or country.

While this should not be artificially limited in one way or another, some five to ten of these trends can usually be identified. These trends or key driving forces can lead us to diverse extremes. The direction economic policy takes is a typical example of such a trend – with nationalisation on the one extreme and private ownership of the economy on the other. In this sense these trends provide us with highways that we can use to help navigate our way into the future.