Читать книгу A Time Traveller's Guide to Our Next Ten Years - Frans Cronje - Страница 15

To start understanding this interaction, one has to rank the major trends in terms of two criteria: their potential impact on the system and the degree of uncertainty about what their impact will be. For example, no one I deal with has a sure sense of where current economic policy is headed. It would therefore rank as a very uncertain trend.

This ranking is often done on a graph with two axes: one indicating the degree of impact, and the other the degree of uncertainty. All the major trends are then placed somewhere on this graph, varying between four extremes: high impact and high uncertainty; low impact and high uncertainty; high impact and low uncertainty; and low impact and low uncertainty; as suggested by the graph below:

Impact and uncertainty of major trends