Читать книгу A Time Traveller's Guide to Our Next Ten Years - Frans Cronje - Страница 16

The ninth step is to produce a matrix based on the two most important and most uncertain trends identified in the impact/uncertainty graph on the previous page. These two trends then become the axes of a matrix, and the scenarios are developed in the quadrants formed by these axes. For example, if economic growth and political stability are identified as the two most important and uncertain trends influencing the future of a system, the matrix would be constructed with these two trends as its axes as on the figure below.

A scenario matrix

Scenario 1 would describe a society shaped by high levels of economic growth in a stable political environment. Scenario 2 would describe a society shaped by high levels of economic growth in an environment of growing political instability. Scenario 3 would describe a society shaped by low levels of economic growth in an unstable political environment. Finally, scenario 4 would describe a society shaped by low levels of economic growth, but in a stable political environment.

It is important to state here that the selection of two trends to form these axes does not mean that the others have been discarded. They will all be reincorporated or reconsidered in the final step outlined below.