Читать книгу Renewable Energy for Sustainable Growth Assessment - Группа авторов - Страница 64
2.5.3 Monte Carlo Simulations–Based Probabilistic Ranking
ОглавлениеThe uncertainties related to a wide range in input values have been addressed by the TOPSIS method run using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). For MCS each indicator value (Table 2.3) was randomly sampled with uniform distribution for 10,000 simulations. These randomly sampled variables are used as input to the TOPSIS method and probabilistic ranking was obtained. The histograms obtained of the ranking for each of RE technologies from the 10,000 MCS are presented in Figure 2.3. It can be seen from the histogram that small hydropower is on the top rank in more than 80% of simulations and bioenergy is on the bottom rank in more than 90% of simulations. While large hydropower has distributed ranking (from 1 to 4) in the range of 10% to 45% number of simulation cases.
Table 2.6 Decision matrix with fuzzy linguistic variable.
| RE technology | I1 | I2 | I3 | I4 | I5 | I6 | I7 | I8 | I9 | I10 |
| Large hydropower | Very high | Very high | Medium | Very high | Very high | High | Very high | Very low | Very low | Very low |
| Small hydropower | Very high | Very low | Medium | Very low | Medium | Very high | Very high | Medium | Medium | Medium |
| Solar PV | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very high | High | Very high | Very high | High |
| Onshore wind | Low | Very low | Very low | High | Very low | Very high | Very high | Very high | High | Very high |
| Bioenergy | Medium | Medium | Very high | Low | Very low | Very low | Very low | High | Medium | Low |
| Wj | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low | Very low |
Table 2.7 Fuzzy decision matrix.
| RE technology | I1 | I2 | I3 | I4 | I5 | I6 | I7 | I8 | I9 | I10 |
| Large hydropower | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.55,0.70, 0.85) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) |
| Small hydropower | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) |
| Solar PV | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.55,0.70, 0.85) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.55,0.70, 0.85) |
| Onshore wind | (0.15, 0.30, 0.45) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.55,0.70, 0.85) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.55,0.70, 0.85) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) |
| Bioenergy | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.75, 0.90, 1.00) | (0.15, 0.30, 0.45) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.55,0.70, 0.85) | (0.35, 0.50, 0.65) | (0.15, 0.30, 0.45) |
| Wj | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.10, 0.25) |
Table 2.8 Fuzzy weighted decision matrix and fuzzy-TOPSIS result.
| RE technology | I1 | I2 | I3 | I4 | I5 | I6 | I7 | I8 | I9 | I10 | Si+ | Si- | Ri | Ranking |
| Large hydropower | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.07, 0.21) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | 9.2377 | 1.0970 | 0.1061 | 1 |
| Small hydropower | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | 9.2941 | 1.0144 | 0.0984 | 3 |
| Solar PV | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.07, 0.21) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.07, 0.21) | 9.3848 | 0.8914 | 0.0867 | 4 |
| Onshore wind | (0.00, 0.03, 0.11) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.07, 0.21) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.07, 0.21) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | 9.2779 | 1.0404 | 0.1008 | 2 |
| Bioenergy | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.09, 0.25) | (0.00, 0.03, 0.11) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.01, 0.06) | (0.00, 0.07, 0.21) | (0.00, 0.05, 0.16) | (0.00, 0.03, 0.11) | 9.4407 | 0.8086 | 0.0789 | 5 |
Figure 2.3 Histograms obtained of the ranking for each of RE technologies from the 10,000 MCS.
