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Risk analysis is a set of scientific methods for identifying risks, evaluating the likelihood and consequences of the risks occurring, and deciding how best to prevent, avoid, mitigate, reduce, manage, and communicate the risk.¹⁵ Modern, formal risk analysis has four components: hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.¹⁶ The first component, hazard identification, comprises methods for identifying hazards and the conditions and events under which they potentially produce adverse consequences. The second component, risk assessment, comprises methods for organizing and evaluating information about the nature, strength of evidence, likelihood, and magnitude of adverse outcomes. The third component, risk management, comprises methods for analyzing, selecting, implementing, and evaluating actions to reduce risk. The fourth component, risk communication, comprises methods for communicating results from hazard identification, risk assessment, and risk management. As shown in Figure 2.2, risk communication interacts with all components of a risk analysis.

Figure 2.2 Components of risk analysis.

Formal quantitative risk analysis methods have been applied to a wide variety of issues. For example, health, safety, and environmental researchers have applied risk analysis principles, strategies, approaches, and methods to:

1 Cancer risks: Cancer risks resulting from exposures to chemicals, heavy metals, and other substances proven or suspected to be human carcinogens.

2 Noncancer health risks: Noncancer risks resulting from exposures to toxic substances in the environment that can cause adverse health effects on the heart, kidneys, liver, brain, and reproductive system.

3 Ecological risks: Ecological risks to natural ecosystems resulting from both habitat modification and environmental pollution.

4 Natural hazard risks: Natural hazard risks resulting from extreme events that originate in the natural environment, including (1) meteorological hazards, such as severe storms, heat waves, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, climate change, and wildfires; (2) hydrological hazards, such as floods, storm surges, and tsunamis; (3) geophysical hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and landslides; and (4) biological hazards, such as epidemics, disease outbreaks, insect infestations, animal attacks, and food contamination incidents.

5 Technological risks. Technological risks resulting from events that originate in human‐controlled processes, including industrial accidents, transport accidents, dam collapses, mining accidents, and other types of technology‐based accidents or incidents (e.g., accidents resulting in the release of toxic, flammable, explosive, radiological, or nuclear materials).

6 Human conflict risks. Human conflict risks resulting from events such as terrorist bombing, active shooter incident, mass shooting incident, and cyberattack.

The line between these types of risks is often blurred. One example is Hurricane Katrina, which struck three US states – Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Problems caused by the natural hazard were increased by technological failures (e.g., by the failure of the levees and flood control systems); by the lack of coordination and conflict between public and private sector organizations at the federal, regional, state, and local level; and by huge operational and communication failures during the pre‐crisis, crisis, and post‐crisis phases of the disaster.¹⁷