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One source of difficulty in communicating information about risks is the uncertainty and complexity of the data generated by risk assessments. Risk assessments are the theories and methods used to determine the risks posed by a particular hazard or event that may have a negative impact on individuals, groups, or the environment. Many organizations conduct risk assessments to characterize the nature and magnitude of health, safety, and environmental risks. Organizations also conduct risk assessments to characterize the nature and magnitude of legal and financial risks.

Despite their strengths, risk assessments seldom provide exact answers. Because of limitations in scientific understanding, data, models, and methods, the results of most assessments are approximations. The resources needed to resolve these uncertainties are seldom adequate to the task. Table 3.1 lists sources of uncertainty in risk assessments.

Table 3.1 Sources of uncertainty in risk assessments.

Have the study results or claims been successfully tested using more than one method?Have the results or claims been re‐evaluated using different measurement or statistical techniques?Do the study results or claims test high for statistical significance?Is the probability so small that the same effect could have occurred by chance alone?What is the statistical strength of the study result or claim?How substantial is the strength of association?Are the claims of a strong or clear effect supported by a strong strength of association?Are the study results or claims specific as to health effects of the risk agent or are they general in nature?Can the study results or claims be explained by confounding factors or other relationships?What is the amount of detail in describing data and possible weaknesses in the study?What types of data are missing and how important are the gaps?What variables are missing?How significant are the missing data or variables?What are the greatest sources of uncertainty in the results?What does the investigator feel is known well and what is not known?Are the conclusions clearly stated?Are the conclusions of the study justified by the findings and substantiated by the evidence presented? Which ones are? Which ones are not?Are the conclusions linked to the original objectives of the study?Are the generalizations confined to the populations from which the sample was drawn? If not, why not?What are the implications of the study?What action does the study suggest?What additional studies are needed?Could this study be replicated? If not, why not?Has the study been peer‐reviewed by qualified professionals?Has the study been published or accepted for publication in a scientific journal? If the study has not been submitted for publication in a scientific journal, will it be submitted?

These uncertainties invariably affect communication. For example, uncertainties in risk assessments often lead to radically different estimates of risk and the outcomes of efforts taken to reduce the severity of the harm or adverse effects. Debates about risks often derive from these uncertainties.