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Aggregate Simulations
ОглавлениеThese simulations typically array forces linearly in a series of sectors (often referred to as “pistons”) where, in each sector, algorithms will assess if an attack will occur, and if so who will be the attacker. In each sector, the simulation calculates a combat power score (also known as a firepower score) for each force to assess the combat power ratio that exists between the forces. The first simulations that used combat power scores calculated the combat power comparison assuming that each side had perfect information on all the forces, friendly and adversary, in that sector. In other words, not only did each side have perfect intelligence on its adversary’s force composition, but each side also had perfect communications because it knew the status of each and every friendly unit in that sector. Also note that the combat power assessment assumed that the opposing commanders each had an identical assessment of the combat power value of each of the systems of all the forces. That is, there was no modeling of a commander’s misperception that the adversary’s force is more or less formidable than the specified combat power values. Also note that surprise could not be modeled with this construct. Each side was omniscient with respect to its adversary, so there was no way for a commander to maneuver an unseen force to a position of advantage to attack the enemy from an unexpected direction. Quite simply, if a force has a 3 : 1 or better advantage in combat power over their adversary, then that force would attack that adversary. Attrition of each side’s combat power was then assessed based on the calculated combat power ratio, and each side’s combat power was then decremented accordingly. Movement of both forces was then assessed based on the amount of combat power lost and the type of terrain the sector consists of. Movement may have been mitigated so that a unit’s movement in one sector did not expose the flank of a friendly unit in an adjacent sector. As simulations became more sophisticated, combat power scores were modified. The Marine Corps’ Tactical Warfare Simulation, Evaluation, and Analysis System (TWSEAS) and MAGTF (Marine Air Ground Task Force) Tactical Warfare Simulation (MTWS) took into account “perceived combat power,” which limited each side’s calculation to only its current knowledge of the opposing force. Some simulations calculated dynamic combat power values, updating values based on the remaining forces on the battlefield after each time step, so, for example, an air defense weapon might have no combat power once all opposing aircraft had been destroyed.