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Data

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The simulations described above usually need between three to six months to instantiate a new scenario, and will cost around one million US dollars to get the simulation ready to run (terrain and performance data developed, quality controlled, and input, and scheme of maneuver developed, instantiated, and tested). Data is always challenging. Performance data must be developed to account for every interaction that could happen between all systems that will be represented on the battlefield. Performance data development can be especially challenging when examining future scenarios with emerging technology. Even developing data to simulate today’s forces comes with challenges. The US Army has perhaps one of the most robust processes to develop performance data, but even that process uses only about 10% of actual data. This data is collected from ranges such as Aberdeen Proving Grounds where, in a controlled environment, US Army weapon systems are fired at captured enemy systems to determine their vulnerability to US weapons. They also use captured enemy systems to fire at actual US Army systems to determine their vulnerabilities. Often several US ground combat vehicles are rolled off the production line with the expressed intent of testing their vulnerabilities to enemy systems. After test firing is conducted, engineers determine the damage caused and record that information, which becomes the basis for the performance data that is generated for ground combat simulations. The other 90% of the data is then “surrogated,” that is, interpolated, extrapolated, or otherwise estimated from that existing test data. This data is often developed using engineering‐level simulations. Ground combat weapon systems are relatively inexpensive and numerous so testing their vulnerabilities can be done given the availability of the appropriate enemy weapon systems and ammunition. The Navy and the Air Force are challenged to come up with test data that can be used to develop performance data against their platforms. Firing captured adversary anti‐ship missiles at a multibillion‐dollar Ford class aircraft carrier to see how many hits it can withstand before sinking just is not possible, so often the data used is more of an educated guess than a mathematical approximation. One of the biggest threats to today’s naval vessels is the anti‐ship missile (ASM), but there have been less than 300 recorded instances of ASM hits on vessels that could be used to develop data.31

Simulation and Wargaming

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