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The late, great Air Force analyst, Clayton Thomas, described simulation‐based analysis as an IF‐THEN statement. Both the simulation and the data comprise the IF side. The simulation and the data are then used to produce the simulation’s output, the THEN side. If the simulation represented reality and if the data were precise, then the result would be an accurate prediction.³⁰ In general, neither is true. In the following paragraphs, we will examine how well our simulations represent reality and how precise our data are.