Читать книгу System Reliability Theory - Marvin Rausand - Страница 62

Reliability theory was significantly enhanced during the 1960s and several important books were published, among which are Bazovsky (1961), Lloyd and Lipow (1962), Barlow and Proschan (1965), and Shooman (1968).

In 1960, the first edition of the US military handbook MIL‐HDBK‐217F was released, outlining an approach for reliability prediction of electronic equipment.

In 1962, the Bell Telephone Laboratories published a report on the safety of the launch control system for the Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile using fault tree analysis. This report is considered to be the birth of fault tree analysis. The same year, David R. Cox published his seminal book on renewal theory (Cox 1962).

In 1964, the “Reliability Engineering” handbook was published by Aeronautical Radio, Incorporated (ARINC). This book (ARINC 1964) was one of the first books describing engineering aspects of reliability theory. Another book on reliability engineering was Ireson (1966).

In 1968, the Air Transport Association (ATA) issued a document titled “Maintenance Evaluation and Program Development.” This document gave rise to the approach “maintenance steering group” (MSG). The first version, called MSG‐1, was used to ensure the safety of the new Boeing 747‐100 aircraft. The MSG‐1 process used failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) and a decision logic to develop scheduled maintenance. MSG‐1 was later developed into MSG‐2 and MSG‐3, which is the current version.

The Reliability Analysis Center (RAC) was established in 1968 as a technical information center for the US Department of Defense, and soon played a very important role in the development of reliability theory and practice. The RAC journal was widely distributed, presenting updated information about new developments.

The military standard “Reliability program for systems and equipment” was published in 1969 (MIL‐STD‐785A 1969).

One of the most influential researchers on reliability theory in the 1960s was Zygmunt Wilhelm Birnbaum (1903–2000). He introduced a new importance metric of component reliability (Birnbaum 1969), made a probabilistic version of Miner's rule for fatigue life (Birnbaum and Saunders 1968), and made many other significant contributions.