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4.2.1 Historical Phase 1: Presenting Risk Numbers
ОглавлениеIn the United States, Phase 1 covered the period from approximately the mid‐1970s to the mid‐1980s. Researchers and decision‐makers focused on how best to present numerical estimates of risk to people with limited background in numerical concepts. Researchers and decision‐makers also focused on how best to use risk comparisons for establishing risk management priorities.
Leiss’s Phase 1 corresponds to Fischhoff’s Stages 1 and 2. Historical Phase 1 included attempts to communicate risk‐related numbers in 1979 at Love Canal – a neighborhood in Niagara Falls, New York, infamously known as the location of a 70‐acre landfill and massive environmental pollution – and at Three Mile Island (1979) – a location near Middletown, Pennsylvania, where a nuclear power plant partially melted down, creating the most serious accident in US commercial nuclear power plant operating history.