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INTRODUCTION

“I AM NOT A SPEED READER, I AM A SPEED UNDERSTANDER.”

—ISAAC ASIMOV,

Author, Historian and Biochemist

Isaac Asimov was not just a science fiction writer.

In his prolific lifetime, he wrote nearly 500 books on topics ranging from his beloved science fiction series to a two-volume work explaining the collected literature of William Shakespeare. He even wrote a reader’s guidebook to the Bible.

Even though he was celebrated for his science fiction work, Asimov never defined himself in one category. When asked which his favorite book was, he often joked, “the last one I’ve written.” He wasn’t a scientist or a theologian or a literary critic. He was simply a writer with an incredible curiosity for ideas.

Unlike other experts, he knew that the power of his thinking came from his ability to bring disparate bodies of knowledge together and add his own insight. In fact, he used to describe himself as a “speed understander,” a skill he clearly relied on to help him maintain a grueling schedule of publishing more than 15 books a year at his peak.

What if each of us could become a “speed understander” like Asimov?

I believe we can.

The simple aim of this book is to teach you how to see the things that others miss. I call that “Non-Obvious” thinking, and learning how to do it can change your business and your career.

The context within which I’ll talk about this type of thinking is business trends. For better or worse, most of us are fascinated by trends and those who predict them. We see these annual predictions as a glimpse into the future and they capture our imagination.

There’s only one problem—most of them are based on guesswork or lazy thinking. They are obvious instead of Non-Obvious.

This book was inspired by the landslide of obvious ideas we see published today.

In a world where anyone is one button away from being a self-declared expert, learning to think differently is more important than ever. Observing and curating ideas can lead to a unique understanding of why people choose to buy, sell or believe anything.

This book aims to teach you the skills to avoid the obvious and see the ideas, patterns and trends that others miss.

A great trend is a unique curated observation about the accelerating present.

Great trends are never predictions about the world 20 years from now. Those are most often guesses or wishful thinking. How many trend forecasters do you think predicted the rise of something like Twitter back in 1997? Exactly zero.

Yet this doesn’t mean trends are useless. The most powerful trends can offer predictions for the short-term future based on observing the present. And knowing the short-term future is more valuable than you may think.

Why Does Trend Curation Matter?

Most of our life decisions happen in the short term, though we may describe them differently. You choose to start a business in the short term. You choose whom to marry in the short term. You change careers from one role to the next, all in the short term.

Long-term decisions start in the short term, so understanding how the world is changing in real time is far more valuable immediately than trying to guess what will happen in the world 20 years from now.

When I speak on stage, I often describe myself first as a “trend curator.” The reason I use that term is because it describes my passion for collecting ideas and taking the time to see the patterns in them to describe the world in new and interesting ways.

For the past six years, I have published a curated look at the 15 biggest trends that will shape the business world in the year to come. Each year it is called the Non-Obvious Trend Report and each edition is based on a year of research, conversation, thinking and writing.

Across that time, I have advised some of the largest brands in the world on business strategy, taught marketing courses at Georgetown University and spoken at events in 32 countries around the world.

All of this gives me the valuable chance to work in dozens of different industries and study media, culture, marketing, technology, design and economics with an unfiltered eye. Each year, I also read or review dozens of books, and buy magazines on everything from cloud computing to Amish farming methods.

My philosophy is to collect ideas the way frequent fliers collect miles—as momentary rewards to use for later redemption.

Why I Wrote This Book

This “redemption” comes in the form of my annual trend report, but unlike many other trend forecasters simply sharing my annual report is only the beginning. If I really believe in the value of curating trends, and that anyone can learn to do it, then it is also important for me to share my process for how to do it.

So this book is divided into four sections.

Part I is dedicated to my methods of trend curation, which I have usually only shared in depth through private workshops or with my students in class. You will learn the greatest myths of trend prediction, five essential habits of trend curators and my own step-by-step approach to curating trends, which I call the Haystack Method.

Part II is the 2017 edition of the Non-Obvious Trend Report, featuring 15 new ideas that will shape business in the year to come. Each trend features supporting stories and research, as well as ideas for how to apply the trend to your own business or career.

Part III is filled with tips on making trends actionable, including a short description of workshops to bring trends to life. In this part, I also discuss the importance of anti-trends and how to use “intersection thinking” to see the patterns between industries and stories.

Finally, Part IV is a new look at 105 previously predicted trends from the past six years along with an honest assessment and rating for how each one performed over time since it was originally predicted.

You can choose to read this book in the order it was published or you can skip back and forth between trends and techniques. Whether you choose to focus on my predictions for 2017 and how to apply them, or learning the techniques of trend curation and Non-Obvious thinking for yourself, this book can be read in short bursts or all at once.

Like Asimov, you don’t need to be a speed reader.

Being a speed understander, however, is a worthy aspiration. It is my hope that this book will help you get there.